So, That Steam Game You Ignored? It Probably Didn't Even Make Back Its $100 Fee
New data estimates paint a grim picture of Steam's "discoverability" problem, and it turns out it's more of a mass grave.
I've been saying it for years, but scrolling through Steam's "New Releases" tab feels like panning for gold in a septic tank. For every one genuine gem, you have to sift through five hundred asset flips, half-baked "simulators," and games that look like they were made during a lunch break. It's not just a feeling, either. Now I've got the numbers to back up my cynicism.
Data recently pulled by the Steam-watcher site Gamalytic gives us a look under the hood of 2025's releases, and it is fucking bleak. Since January 1, Steam has seen almost 13,000 new games. Thirteen. Thousand. And the vast majority of them are just... digital ghosts.
The $100 Black Hole
This data, which was flagged by Soulash 2 developer Artur Smiarowski, breaks down just how brutal the market is. Let's get the big one out of the way: an estimated 40% of all games released on Steam this year failed to make back their $100 submission fee.
Let that sink in.
Four out of every ten "developers" who put a game on Valve's platform couldn't even convince enough people to part with a few bucks to clear the lowest possible financial hurdle. That fee, by the way, gets recouped once the game hits $1,000 in revenue. So this means 40% of 2025's library didn't even sniff $1,000. It's a digital graveyard of failed dreams and, let's be honest, probably a lot of genuinely terrible games.
The Brutal Math
The numbers get even more depressing. The bottom 30% of games by revenue this year apparently averaged a whopping $37 in gross. Thirty. Seven. Dollars. I'm pretty sure that's less than the electricity cost to upload the damn thing.
Now, Gamalytic itself admits its "estimation methodology" is soft. It's not perfect data from Valve's own servers. The site claims its estimates for individual games are mostly within a 30-50% margin of error, and it's less accurate for tiny games (which, hello, these obviously are).
But frankly, who cares? Even if they're off by 50%, what's the difference? $37 or $74, it's all the same: a catastrophic failure. It just confirms what we all knew: the floor of the Steam store has collapsed.
So, Who's Making Money?
There is an "upside," if you want to call it that. The same data estimates that 8% of releases grossed over $100,000. That's the dream, right? That's the indie success story everyone chases, the cozy clicker that finds its audience.
But it means that for every one game that "makes it," there are dozens more that are dead on arrival. It's a market built on a lottery, and Valve is just sitting back, collecting $100 a pop from every hopeful soul who wants to pull the lever.
This isn't really a discoverability problem anymore. It's a containment problem. Steam has become a digital landfill, and it's getting harder and harder to find anything that doesn't smell like a desperate struggle for survival. The platform is a success, but for most of the people on it, it's just a void.