Dave the Diver Just Belly-Flopped on Xbox, and It Proves "Shadow Drops" Are a Stupid Gamble

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Written By NLM Team

It seems that surprising your customers by asking for money without warning isn't actually a brilliant marketing strategy.

It feels like every publisher in 2025 has the same bright idea. They want to pull a Beyoncé. They want to drop a game out of nowhere, yell "Surprise!" during a livestream, and watch the money roll in. It worked for Hi-Fi Rush. It worked for Death Stranding. But last week, Dave the Diver tried it on Xbox, and the result wasn't a splash. It was a wet, depressing thud against the concrete.

The data is in, and it paints a grim picture for developers who think they can skip the marketing cycle. It turns out that on Xbox, if you aren't on Game Pass, being a "surprise" just means you are invisible.

The Numbers are Tragic

I honestly feel bad for the little guy. According to a new report by TrueAchievements, which pulls gameplay data from over 3.1 million active Xbox accounts via Game Trends, Dave the Diver had a nightmare debut.

The game landed at rank #421 for the week.

To put that into a painful perspective, that is lower than the original Borderlands from a million years ago. It is lower than Batman: Arkham Asylum. It is even lower than something called Clicker Heroes. This is an award-winning, universally loved indie darling, and it got beaten by ancient back-catalog filler and idle clickers.

Walking Into a Buzzsaw

It didn't help that Dave had the worst timing imaginable. He wasn't the only surprise guest at the party. Konami decided to shadow drop the Silent Hill 2 remake on Xbox mere hours later.

Even with a higher price tag, Silent Hill 2 managed to hit #132. It turns out that when you pit a pixel-art fishing game against a high-fidelity horror remake, the horror game wins the attention war every single time. Konami also had the benefit of leaks ruining their surprise, so people actually knew the game was coming. Dave just showed up uninvited and got ignored.

The Game Pass Problem

This highlights a massive issue with the Xbox ecosystem right now. The shadow drop only works if the barrier to entry is zero.

If you look at the successes like Oblivion Remastered or The Rogue Prince of Persia, they all had one thing in common. They launched directly into Game Pass. When the game is "free," a surprise launch is a gift. When the game costs $20, a surprise launch is just an expense I didn't budget for.

We saw this happen with Triangle Strategy recently too. That game didn't even crack the top 500. Without that "Play with Game Pass" banner, these surprise launches are just marketing suicide.

Publishers need to stop treating Xbox players like impulse buyers with infinite wallets. If you want us to buy your game, maybe try telling us it exists a few weeks in advance. Otherwise, you end up like Dave, swimming alone at the bottom of the charts.

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NLM Team
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