Obsidian Admits The Outer Worlds 3 Is Dead in the Water
The dream of a trilogy for Obsidian’s space-faring RPG has officially crashed into a planet.
It brings me no joy to write this. I have been rooting for Obsidian since the New Vegas days, but the numbers don't lie. After a chaotic 2025 that saw the studio release three games in eight months, the dust has settled. The result is grim for fans of satirical sci-fi. The Outer Worlds 2 underperformed, and Obsidian has confirmed there are no plans for a third entry.
The studio had a massive year on paper. They dropped Avowed in February, Grounded 2 in July, and The Outer Worlds 2 in October. It sounded like a victory lap for Xbox. Instead, it was a logistical nightmare that burned out the team and resulted in two of those three games missing their sales targets.
The Death of a Franchise
The Outer Worlds 2 took six years to make. That is a long time to bake a pie that nobody wants to eat.
According to a recent interview with Bloomberg, the game simply didn't move the needle enough to justify the investment. The pandemic and technical hurdles bloated the development time, and the sales just weren't there to match the budget.
This is the harsh reality of modern game development. You can't spend half a decade making a game that only gets a lukewarm reception. So, the franchise is being put on ice. If you were hoping to see more of the Halcyon colony, you are out of luck.
Avowed Missed, But Isn't Dead
The fantasy RPG Avowed didn't fare much better in terms of targets. It also missed its internal goals. However, unlike its sci-fi cousin, the universe of Eora is not getting the axe.
Obsidian stated they still have plans for the setting. This makes sense. Eora is the same world as Pillars of Eternity, and it has a deeper lore foundation than The Outer Worlds ever did. It seems Microsoft is willing to give the fantasy side of things another shot, even if the first attempt was a bit rocky.
The Winner Was the Bug Game
In a twist of irony, the only clear win for Obsidian last year was Grounded 2.
It had the shortest development cycle of the three. It hit Early Access quickly. It made money.
There is a lesson here that the industry refuses to learn. Grounded 2 took about two years to get out the door. Avowed and Outer Worlds 2 took six. The one that didn't cost a GDP to produce is the one that is considered a hit. Obsidian seems to be waking up to this. The studio is now looking at shortening dev cycles because, frankly, nobody wants to wait seven years for a game that might be a 7/10.
The Microsoft Squeeze
There is also the looming shadow of the corporate overlords. The report mentions Microsoft’s target of a 30% profit margin for its studios. That is a steep hill to climb for single-player RPGs that don't have microtransactions stuffed into every menu.
Obsidian boss Feargus Urquhart was diplomatic about it, hoping Microsoft would continue to fund "riskier projects" even if they don't hit that magic number. I hope he is right. If every game needs to be a Grounded style hit to survive, we are going to lose the weird, narrative-heavy RPGs that made us love this studio in the first place.
For now, pour one out for The Outer Worlds. It was a fun ride, but the ship has sailed.
